I'm quite convinced that some key mistakes were:
- Choosing Comair over Atantic Star
- Atlantic star ditching the 757 for 737
I don't think the 738 is really the best A/C out there for this, I really do think the 757 is what they need... Maybe the A319neo might offer something looking forward, outside of that it's a Hercules or C17 with seats in... A lot of aircraft can work and can do it, but it's about doing it with the right margins, and doing it reliably and regularly, not doing it every other flight day when the wind's alright and you haven't run out of fuel on go-arounds and end up backtracking 3 hours to Walvis Bay.
If the government's were to back Atlantic Star, help them source a nice 757 they can do up and look after themselves (there's plenty going, and who cares if it's 20+ years old, the kind of operation ASA's after - medium/long haul, couple of times a week, lots of downtime - it could have another 10-20 years in it providing it wasn't a high cycles frame) then I could see it being a very successful operation, 3 class 757 about 180-200 seats shouldn't have much problem, if they were a bit strict and limited it to 120-150 pax they might just be able to make the Falklands like they wanted to, maybe even with a meaningful amount of cargo onboard.
How is the 757 in winds and rough weather, I'd assume it's probably closer to the "tank" end of the scale rather than the "penny floater" 738