Jim,
I wouldn't take the wager.
Last Monday morning Airbus Helicopters distributed letter 3031-S-00 definitively stating that all operators can safely return their 225's to service (subject to local approval). They based their comments on "additional information gathered during the last 48 hours" i.e. Saturday / Sunday.
The implication is one of maintenance error. Soon after the release of this letter strong rumours were leaked about the discovery of locking pins found 'on the bench'.
Airbus would not have dared suggest this so quickly after the accident without being 100% sure.