The open threat from Ms. Thompson the Director of Flight Operations

[Numero Crunchero]

oval 3 holer
lies, damned lies and statistics.

stevieboy330 was reporting what I will assume is a fact.

It was 151 events out of 37,000 according to you.

Now let's make it real world by an example - if 37,000 people go to 247 beaches once each over 30 days - and every day 5 people swim at each of those 247 beaches- that equates to 37,000 swimming events.

Now if it just so happens that one of those beaches has a 100% reporting rate for shark attacks - which means 5 people being attacked by sharks every day for 30 days. Would you ignore the shark attacks because it is only 151 out of 37,000?

Anecdotally I have heard of ASRF reporting rates of near 50% on one particular pattern- not facts, just hear say. But you know I am not a huge hear say person so please give some credence to what I say. Point is - an issue is raised - don't dismiss out of hand by some sophistic or overly simplistic argument....look at the data and evaluate accordingly!
cheers
NC

edit because I know what I mean to say, but I don't always say what I mean!