The FUB,
I agree with with what you wrote and can I add further to that;
1. The full A350 order cancelled for CX, and the whole feet going to CX Dragon as well as some A330.
2. 4 747 production F's going back to Boeing, 3 747 PAX retired this year in Sept/Oct and some if not most of the A340 gone within the next 12-18 months max. On top of that some of the older 777 will be retired soon.
3. Direct entry FO and CN positions available on bases in Australia, Europe and NA. HKG based crew not eligible to bid for it.
Following the above, immediately the crewing issue is solved, and CX expansion is frozen, in fact we would shrink a bit if anything. Contract compliance and Training ban is obsolete as there would be very little upgrade training, only regulatory annual line checks and PC's. Of course we will be blamed for killing the CX expansion as the pilots in CX don't have the goodwill to make the airline grow let alone train other people coming on board.
Further airline expansion for Swire comes from growing CX Dragon into a global airline, not just an Asian carrier.
On top of that, CX has reached a limit of 80 odd flights per week into Australia, there are no more additional slots, and this is a great way for Swire to expand revenue and business into Australia under a different AOC.
Future upgrades for SOs and FOs will be to go onto a new contract and transfer into CX Dragon, similar to what Qantas did with their crew offering them upgrades on a new contract by going into Jetstar.
CX once bought Dragon and shrunk them in the process to align them with CX operations. Well, the tide has turned 10 years later, CX will be shrunk to align with the growth of CX Dragon, either way Swire airlines operation continues to grow and expand into Asia and beyond.
I hope I am wrong, but like somebody once told me, never say never!
Enjoy the ride lads
