Airmanship and Risk Management
Interesting discussion. After reading all of this, where is the discussion about Airmanship? -and- Making a decision to select the runway that poses the least risk to your operation?
Sure, we can 'fit' the numbers to the runways but at the end of the day, experience should lead a crew to make a decision to select the runway that poses the least risk to the operation. Airmanship isn't taught. It comes with experience and the desire to weigh all of the facts before departure, then do the right thing.
As an accident investigator, we do not look for fault, but we do look for the reasons that events happen and all of the details that led up to the event. Ultimately we search for clues to help mitigate the problem from happening again.
To attend an accident site or serious incident site, take the measurements of the area and make a few calculations, sometimes becomes disturbing. If in this case, we determine that the length available of the long runway would have provided a different outcome, the questioning becomes one of: Could you explain why you elected to depart from the short runway knowing that the longer was available?
One cannot take back the actions and outcome of the past however; we can all learn from it and prepare ourselves in better ways with a new mindset.
In the end, Fuel left in the bowser and runway behind you is of no use to you.
Just my experience anyways.
Safe flight!