I may be being a bit Pollyanna-ish, but I don't look for much aggression from Putin outside of a little feel-good rah-rah stuff for the Russian public - like buzzing the US Navy. The thought of China eyeing Siberia is bound to depress his willingness to get too involved in hostilities elsewhere.
Russia's current population is only 143.5 million, a far cry from the old Soviet Union's. It's still a bear, but no longer a grizzly.