The pitch down is the more probable scenario due both to somatographic illusion and the requirement to trim forward as the aircraft accelerates away from the low energy approach config.
Except that, according to the FS24 data (2/10ths second sampling rate and known by personal experience to be reasonably accurate) fz981 had already been in a stable accelerating phase for a significant amount of time prior to the pitch down. The upset occurred at a calculated 220+ knots based on the groundspeed + headwind. The illusion scenario is so so very unlikely - I just can't see it personally.