Let us also not forget that it is Boeing and Airbus who keep putting out these "Forecasts" which are oft to change, they don't really care about the impacts, they just want to put out the idea that Pilots are needed so get people moving through the meat grinders ready to fill the seats they put together, a shortage would hurt them badly as then Airlines will be less likely to purchase Aircraft if they fear there aren't enough Crew to fill them, it's marketing for them. Also let us not forget that these numbers get higher due to people dropping out of the industry and needing to be replaced and you then need to question why they are dropping out of the industry, it's not usually because they loved it so much they couldn't bare it anymore!!
You've nailed it.
Make sure there's a 10,000 surplus of trained commercial pilots so Airlines can pay rubbish money with even worse conditions, yet still fill the pilot seats, ....the airlines will buy more jets.