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Old 27th Mar 2016, 12:46
  #866 (permalink)  
FullWings
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Tring, UK
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There are parallels being drawn with TA363 and there are some similarities but at the same time, some significant differences.

TA363 was about 80-90kts slower so a push-over was necessary to avoid a stall. The FlyDubai trace shows a segment of high pitch (consistent with encountering a positive shear and trying to keep constant IAS, whether manual or automatic) but a recovery to normal attitudes and IAS afterwards. The aeroplane then followed an unremarkable flightpath for 10-15s until pitching down rapidly towards the ground, accompanied by expressions of incredulity from the pilots.

There is very little that supports any kind of stall. If the stabiliser had stalled with a positive AoA, the end result would have been less of a pitch down moment, although the blanking effects on the elevator are uncertain. There probably was icing around but why should the aircraft suffer serious adverse effects from it when accelerating to the highest IAS for some time? You’d have expected it to happen at slow speed and high AoA, neither of which were present when the LoC appears to have happened.

At the moment it’s pointing much more towards some kind of flight control failure; whether or not it was recoverable we’ll have to wait and see.
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