I couldn't see if it had been mentioned yet or not, so perhaps someone can link to it, or our weather guys could shed some light on the wind changes within the altitude band we're looking at. The wind speed has been mentioned at 600m as being somewhere in the order of 60-70 kts if I recall, but not direction.
On the surface, the wind appears to be fairly steady directionally from 250 degrees, so a crosswind from the right (runway 22), so assuming it veers with altitude, it becomes a stronger, more direct crosswind. This doesn't fit with a rapidly increasing headwind scenario, as the change in direction would to a large extent cancel out substantial changes to headwind component. If the direction remains steady however, then that theory holds water.
The best wind data available is from the Airport's Sounding taken at ~0000 UTC 19MAr16. Here are the data for the relevant lower altitudes:
Speed drops near the surface in what one would expect would in power-law fashion, with increasing gustiness, while backing 'gradually' from ~westerly to ~southwesterly.
I took a stab at calculating head winds and cross winds for the second GA:
with an corresponding GPS altitude chart which also includes a stab at IAS:
I hope that helps some.
(Sounding data:
University of Wyoming - Radiosonde Data)
