What have we got so far in terms of evidence, taking in into account the source/reliability?
* The weather wasn’t great but not limiting in terms of surface conditions
* Two approaches were made, with a period of extended holding between them
* Two missed approaches were flown, both from >1,000’ AGL
* Fuel quantity does not appear to be an issue
* No urgency/distress calls were given
* Up to and including the last RT exchange, communications appeared normal
* During the first part of the final missed approach, speed and altitude increase
* After getting to c. 4,000’, speed carries on increasing but altitude decreases rapidly
* The final descent to impact is short, in the region of 10s
As the FDRs have been recovered it shouldn’t be too long until there are accurate figures, assuming they are readable. At the moment we only have the FR24 data, which although should not be taken as gospel, is at least internally consistent. As it’s all we’ve got to go on, it shows in speed vs. altitude pretty much what you would expect from a GA flown with TOGA thrust, right up to the moment it starts a rapid descent. It doesn’t show the speed -> altitude trade and excessive RoC that you’d expect from a pitch excursion. Also, the extrapolated speeds appear to be well removed from unaccelerated stall speeds, in any configuration.
All in all, a bit puzzling at the moment. Why did they GA approaching 1,000’? Could be as simple as they did not make their SAC or there was a WS caution/warning. Whatever was happening, they obviously didn’t like it so threw it away before getting any closer to the ground. Something happened during the missed approach that turned a 4,000fpm climb into a 10,000fpm+ descent within seconds, if the trace is to be believed. Very odd...