boofhead,
Just been mulling over your comment in post #26:
"I can assure you that the lack of qualified pilots has a very real and deleterious effect on the smaller Part 121 and many Part 135 operations already, with few if any youngsters coming up to take their place."
I'm just not entirely convinced that "...few if any youngsters coming up..." is correct.
I fished around for some data addressing that issue and found FAA stats in a bird's-eye-view document produced by University of North Dakota (for our overseas folks, UND is a well known university flight program here) There are several graphs ranging from student pilot certificates issued through ATPs issued...FAA data.
[sorry the UND report containing the data is a pdf...couldn't figure out how to give a direct link to the report...links provided below]
While the data mostly goes only through 2014, CPLs issued began a marked upswing in the 2013-2014 range.
The bar graph of people taking the CPL written shows that while there are many foreign people taking it, that number is exceeded by US citizens taking it. This would be a reasonable indication of US citizens intending to pursue flying on a serious basis.
While there are certainly large numbers of foreign nationals here for training, I doubt they make up the numerical majority of people in the OVERALL US training pipeline. I've heard the number tossed around of 95% of flight school students being foreign nationals; I seriously doubt that but can't get the specific data. There may be some training entities specializing in training non-US folks where 95% may be true, but overall ? Seriously doubt that...especially in the numerous university programs where the flight training spread over years of the quarter/semester academic system wouldn't fit the needs of foreign carriers, allegedly in need of pilots, sending people here for training to satisfy a pressing need at home; the dedicated commercial FTOs would fit the demand much better.
And...the number of CFIs issued began a nearly vertical upturn in 2013/2014. It's safe to say that those folks are serious about flying professionally.
And speaking of CFIs...there has been a distinct uptick in the number of CFI job postings online. I suppose one could surmise this is due to CFIs moving up to whatever they feel is the next rung of the professional ladder of career advancement. If few people were entering the training pipeline, why would these vacancies need to be filled ? Or maybe more CFIs are needed just because even MORE people are signing up to learn to fly ? I really can't say that solely from the data but it's a good question.
Now, in the 2013/partial-2014 range, the number of ATPs issued dropped but this was following the FAR change related to taking the ATP written...an onerous, expensive hurdle to jump just to be allowed to even take it. It's understandable there'd be a drop. But, since then, the regional carriers have had to move that training program for the written in-house to get people onboard and comply with the FAR changes to ATPs for F/Os. I'd like to see what happened in late 2014 through today. I'm going to guess the curve stopped it's downward trend.
So, after all that word salad, I say there are plenty of people entering the system. The profession has taken a serious image hit in the media; research is needed to see if the sky-is-falling atmosphere is correct. I suppose only time will tell for sure.
Here are the links. If the "Track1 Report..." link won't take you directly to the report, go to the aabi.aero link and select the "Track 1 Report" option.
Aviation Accreditation Board International
Track 1 Report - Flight Operations and FOQ Update
Track 1 Report - Flight Operations and FOQ Update