think Ned is referring to proposed BNE/ABX services.
BTW Virgin looked at doing it in winter a few years back, but zero support from the ski resorts, so idea was canned. Now Virgin don't have the aircraft(E-jets) & any they did have were put on very high yielding routes like anywhere to CBR.
Will 3 extra SYD/ABX/SYD per week(Tue, Wed & Thu only) in a Dash 8, really effect proposed BNE/ABX services ?
Probably not.
Look at ABX/SYD - all turboprops. SYD is a mess, with constant delays.
With a tight connection in SYD, you could probably do ABX/SYD/BNE in 3.5 hours, but realistically that's 4 hours(who would want to book a tight connection in SYD-miss the SYD/BNE flight & might not get on the next one.
So let's assume a minimum of 4-4.5 hours. A nonstop in a jet would take just over 1.5 hours.
Convenience & some people understandably, just don't like turboprops.
Lastly, think the main idea of doing nonstop BNE/ABX was aimed at skiers in winter.
You can't get from anywhere in BNE region inc MCY & OOL to ski areas of Falls Creek & Hotham without spending a whole day getting there, whereas at same time, there seems to be a constant increase in flights to Queenstown NZ. OOL has 3 nonstop a week & BNE has up to a dozen a week + must be hundreds of 1 stops via SYD/MEL/AKL/WLG/CHC + often very cheap flights BNE/DUD.
When I worked for an airline, the lowest fare sold, was usually the bare cost of operating the sector, divided by number of seats.
Assuming the big boys, base their lowest fares, in some way similar to this, then looking at cheapest fares ABX/BNE of around $200 with VA & bit more for QF.
Looking at a decent sized jet such as a 717 or F100 which can surely get in & out of ABX without any weight restriction (what would be the largest aircraft that could get in & out of ABX without weigh restriction ? A 733 ?)
the cost for the whole aircraft must be close to $200 one way x number of seats, meaning an operator, could possibly do BNE/ABX at break even, if they sold every seat at VA/QF lowest fares.
This isn't the way it would work of course, but interesting way to look at it.
VA/QF probably have a very small % of seats at lowest fares, plus being 2 sectors, both sectors would have to "align" to get the cheapest.
Would suggest that less than 10% of seats on average are at lowest fares & these would almost all be on unfriendly times/days of week.
Economies of scale & although turboprops may be cheaper to operate than jets on short sectors, jets get cheaper per hour, the longer the sector.
Allegiant have done very well in the U.S. but they act more like a tour operator than an airline. Not sure how much of their profits come from non-airline activity (hotels, car hire etc.) but it much be huge & in effect subsides the flight ops side of their business & it just makes sense, ie. if someone wants to go somewhere, they'll need somewhere to stay & possibly a car + other things like tours. So Allegiant who believe started with Vegas flights from one horse towns, once a week, must have pitched themselves to the Vegas casinos in this way & the casinos must just about give rooms away to tour operators for nothing when they package it up with accommodation, as they know historically, each guest on average will spend $x on gambling/food/drinks etc.