Originally Posted by
Tourist
Shoreham was a spectacular one-off, equal to winning the lottery 3 weeks in a row.
IMO nothing could be further from the truth. The real risk was likely much higher than anyone thought, prior to the event.
Anyone wanting to properly understand this would do well to study the Challenger accident and in particular the comments made by Professor Feynman, one of the few people involved in the investigation to have a sufficiently rigorous scientific background to understand the risk analysis failures which led to that event. I've included
this link to the relevant appendix from the Rogers report into the Shuttle disaster.
Prior to the Challenger disaster, NASA had stated the probability of a catastrophic Shuttle event was less than 1 in 100,000; Feynman's post-crash analysis showed this to be closer to 1 in 100.