FVL Crystal Ball
Riff-Raff,
The LM Sikorsky & Boeing team are very well positioned both politically and with legacy products. But technically?there is not enough accumulated flight hours to really claim anything. Especially reduced development risk.
After FVL, the Defiant may very well be parked. But the Valor is already being marketed by Bell as a low cost alternative to the V-22. And based on the commercial 525 FBW technology and manufacturing experience, Bell is well positioned to control costs.
My crystal ball sees the Valor flying in 2017 and the Defiant being 6 months to a year late. This will not matter to the US Army because they will move the first flight requirement date to keep the Defiant in play.
As the Army conducts a decade long evaluation, Bell will obtain Valor buys from the USMC, USAF and foreign military buyers. Because the aircraft is heavily based on commercially developed technology, export restrictions are not an issue.
Meanwhile using their enormous political clout, the Army will continue to fly Blackhawks and Apaches for another 40 years.
As far as the Scout mission? Armed UAVs and legacy platforms will be the choice for cost.