NSLN,
Wondered how long it would take us to get to the doomsday scenario, but your right, it's a perfectly valid question....
At what stage, if at all, do we have to decide that these are all committed
As soon as 'minimum fuel is declared' in my opinion, that is the ICAO definition and the reason we are advising you.....
Are departures stopped
If mutilple aircraft declare minimum fuel, it seems from my side at least, a perfectly reasonable step for the GS to take. More a question for yourselves though,at what point would ATC decide to put a stop on departures?
In your final question, yes personally making a diversion WOULD be now high on my list. In deciding to commit, I should take into account the reasonability of landing at KK. Your scenario gives me high question as to that probability and I should be taking a command decision accordingly.
LL is often used as the fuel alternate, in times of good weather, when LL NOTAMS do not preclude decalring LL as an alternate etc. I would be expecting to declare a Pan on the way I suspect as an undelayed approach at LHR would not occur otherwise.... If not LL then GW normally - same scenario re Pan I suspect as we all know 'Essex' is far from a quiet place these days.
I don't know of colleagues who will be carrying minimum flight plan fuel to KK in summer seasons, that said, the extra added will of course vary..... We rely on experience, statistical data etc in making that decision, but doesn't mean we can't get caught out and end up in that 'minimum fuel' scenario if the tactical position is way off the stats or recent experiences....
We've not ended up in the 'multiple' scenario you suggest, let's hope from both sides of the mic that we never do. It's right that we all think about how we would handle it if we did though!
30W