Originally Posted by
AvGeek1
Is is exactly what I was thinking if there were plans to decouple the Manchester-Munich-Singapore and make the Manchester flight direct, to compete with CX into the Asian market.
I have previously put this on another forum but it may be of interest here. Credit Scotty Dog (SSC) for the numbers.
I have an update on the route performance of CX and SQ Ex MAN in 2015. Suffice to say SQ does not come out too well, but considering the factors at play against the current SQ operation I feel there is much to be optimistic about for the future.
I should be clear that these figures are credited to "Scottie Dog" (SSC) and my understanding is that they are based upon the official CAA figures for the relevant period. This means that they include direct routes from MAN to the destination, they do not include indirect routes (e.g. MAN-DXB-SIN). In the case of MAN, only one airline service HKG and SIN directly and so calculations can be undertaken reasonably easily. It does not include PAX from MAN-MUC carried by SQ but does include PAX ex MAN who transfer at SIN.
(Hope that is all clear?!!)
SQs performance
In 2015 SQ carried 108,950 PAX from MAN-SIN. This is up 5,998 from 2014 (102,962). Based on a daily frequency, this works out at roughly 150PAX per flight (i.e. 300 per day). Although It has not been used for the entire period under review, if it had been, a 4 class B77W (268 seats) you are looking at a load factor of around 56%. We do not know how many were premium PAX.
By way of historical comparison, in 2005 SQ carried 161,671. Over the past decade there has been a drop of 52,721.
This is disappointing. The overall market size ex MAN has not dropped (it did dip from the GFC) and long haul routes from MAN generally are booming. So what can be done to improve this? Fortunately, CX have provided the template for SQ to follow.
CX performance
In 2015 CX carried 124,172 PAX from MAN to HKG. This was the routes first full year of operations. It was 4x weekly on a 3 class B77W (no F) with 340 seats.
Based on this, they carried roughly 298 PAX per flight, representing a load factor of 88%. CX have been reportedly delighted with this, and want to make the route 8x weekly either with the B77W or A359. Crewing issues have frustrated that until 2017.
The non-stop element has been cited as a key factor in this success, but they have also code shared with a feeder airline into MAN and the departure time (12 noon ish) permits those connections. HKG is also an obscenely strong market for the UK in general.
Is there hope for SQ?
I think yes. The main issue facing SQ is that they are offering a stopping service which brings them into direct competition with a huge number of airlines, including the ME3, TK, BA, Swiss, KLM etc. This is irrespective of whether SIN is the O/D as for places like Australia or NZ (I.e. The major market) SQ essentially offer a two stop service whereas the ME3 offer a 1 stop).
Taking SIN on its own as a sector, the scheduled journey time for SQ MAN-SIN is 14:55. Without the stop it would likely be around 13:00. By comparison for MAN-SIN you are looking at the following connecting journey times:
Via AMS with KL: 15:00
Via LHR with BA: 15:05
Via FRA with SW: 15:15
Via ZRH with SW: 15:20
Via DOH with QR: 15:25
Via DXB with EK : 15:55
I have no figures to hand for EH or TK but they are not likely to be too far off this.
In summary, despite the serious competition faced by SQ and the relatively uncompetitive journey time and departure/connection options (in particular offering a two stop kangaroo service- but also to its
Own hub at SIN!!!) they do very well from MAN, and over half of the plane on the MUC-SIN sector is travelling ex MAN despite the issues above. As an example of the competition, EK report that SIN is in their top 10 connections Ex MAN.
My feeling is that it can standalone on a daily basis using an A350. Making this change is likely to result in a significant boost to PAX numbers, particularly if it uses a brand new type of aircraft.
Of more concern to SQ, may be the MUC route. Could it standalone? of course we have no idea about the general yield of MUC including premium passengers, but we will see what they do.