Being fairly close to the Canada situation...
The political intention is clearly to not buy the F-35. However, since the pre-election rush, the view has prevailed that to exclude the F-35 from the contest is no more rational than the Conservatives' attempt to exclude everything else.
Also, the decision to pay the dues protects what manufacturing work has been awarded to Canada - with the F-35 program frantic to close partner/FMS contracts, which are already lagging 2014 projections, that work could otherwise be given away.
And there's no need to bar the door to the F-35 - just include some sensible, logical and universally applicable language in the RFP (as opposed to the bogus F-35-only clauses in the fake SOR), calling for firm fixed-price contracts and guarantees on CPFH. Since we're talking air defense they could throw 4 x Meteors in there as well.
And let's not forget that the almost-real F-35 (not the superplane of pre-2010 propaganda) is 0:1 in open, rules-based competitions.
I like Rafale's chances in Canada. Two engines, lots of range and Dassault is a big partner to Canadian industry. And Bombardier could run the FACO.