Caveat away....
Drones are easy to shoot down once you get to them. The Saab EriEye radar is claimed to have a horizon-limited 190 nm range against jet-skis, which last time I looked were smaller than CVNs. So I should think that the Soar Dragon at FL500+ could easily carry a radar capable of detecting a large ship at 250 nm or so. I can send the CAP to run him down, but they may have to go to burner to get parameters on him, and if the UAV senses my lethal intent and beetles off, he can pull the range out a bit.
Satellites can't really track a carrier. But they can detect and ID it, and cue the UAV or even the missile. Depends how fast your kill-chain can work. And the swath is (again) hundreds of miles across, so it takes a finite formation of sats to sweep the S China Sea. I can make an evasive maneuver, but even in an hour the uncertainty circle is measures in tens of miles.
A ballistic missile reentry vehicle with a terminal guidance system accurate and precise enough to track a mobile target and a maneuvering system able to hit such a target? Has anyone anywhere ever made one of those?
The USN seems to think so...
And assuming such an attack could be done successfully, would the reaction/consequences to a deck punctured carrier be much less than a sunk carrier?
Yes, if you're not a complete lunatic.
Missile defenses are expensive and can quickly end up on the wrong end of a cost-imposition equation.
And it would seem that in the event a ballistic missile was fired at a carrier the assumption is going to be that it carries a nuke. And if such an attack failed it is going to result in an awful lot of hurt for the country that fired that missile.
I really hope you're not saying what I think you're saying.