Preface: Based on my own understanding from 20+ years in the industry, this is my own call and no one elses
The PIC planned FL350, and fuel planned as such.
Due to the negative RVSM status, the flight was limited to FL280
[conjecture]After several missed approaches due to low viz, the PIC elected to head over water to find the minima.
With gear down (as is obvious by the sea bed photos) ready for approach (see track vs runway alignment), the PIC managed a CFIT, in the water.
PIC subsequently calls it a 'ditching' to avoid being hit by falling debris.[/conjecture]
CASA recognises malfeasance after going through the books, contacts NTSB.
NTSB find FDR/CVR unrecoverable.
Senate think otherwise.
NTSB find FDR/CVR years later.
The next bit becomes interesting