As this is my first post on pprune, let me say hello. Perhaps some of you will recognise my handle, in which case hello again!
There has been a fair amount of chatter regarding long haul routes ex MAN on a number of forums that I am a member of. Some of these have been mentioned but it may be worth my while to offer my two cents.
Cape Town - as LAX_LHR mentions this would be a dream route for TCX. It did not work with SAA but should do with the right aircraft. I'd like to see VS perform this route but in their current position I suspect that is beyond a long shot. Johannesburg would also be a good one, but less of a leisure route for TCX.
Shanghai - this seems likely to be launched by Air China sometime after Hainan launch the Beijing route.
LAX/SFO - although TCX have launched a route to LAX this summer, it is only twice a week and seasonal. The indications are that demand is stronger for that route, and I'm sure there are a number of airlines who will watch with interest. BA used to offer this in the past and VS have long been credited with an interest. The partnership with DL has been productive in Atlanta and a further expansion west might benefit both parties. I doubt both would be launched but I would not be shocked if one was within the next year. A left field operator in the shape of Air New Zealand have been interested in the past.
Bangkok - as mentioned, another good TCX route. Apparent TG were keen on MAN before their recent problems. Not sure why, but hey ho.
Kuala Lumpur - big market, served by MH in the past but their wel publicised issues mean it is unrealistic. Air Asia X have sniffed around this route but we're put off by APD.
Tokyo - long running interest from JAL. Who knows if anything would come from it but it would be a great one to have.
Delhi/Mumbai - quite how AI have not opened this is beyond me. BHX do really well on the route and I suspect MAN would equal that (unless they feel it would dilute their pax market?)
Dallas - AA have tweeted about running a 788 on this route. Whether anything happens is anyone's guess.
Singapore - who knows what SQ will do. On another forum I have posted that MAN supply comfortably over half the average PAX load to SIN from MUC. How much of those are premium PAX I do not know. The figures are not a million miles away from the early 2000s when it was daily in the 772ER and the suggestion is they they will try non stop again with an A359.
JFK/EWR - big increase in PAX in 2015. Hopefully someone Will offer a different departure time than early morning!!!
Hong Kong - a daily or 8x weekly CX service I think will launch in 2017.
On BA, as Shed says they would argue that their partner and alliance airlines serve MAN. They are not the national operator, but a hub airline - same as the MEB3, SQ, CX etc. MAN is a spoke, but a pretty large spoke. Do I think they could make a long haul operation at MAN work? Possibly, but I doubt they'll try. There is clearly a market for it, but there would need to be no half measures and some people have long memories of BA abandoning MAN and that would be difficult to circumvent. They may need to change their business model to a dual hub a la LH - who are not exactly in the best of shapes.