SextanteUK,
To put some broader context to your point about numbers of US age-65 retirements, I got a bar graph of that data directly from ALPA R & I people. It was based on early 2012 numbers of ONLY [at that time...a couple of others added since then] ALPA-represented airlines and spans 2012 through 2056 so it's just a tad out of date. The curve seems to peak about the 2026/2028 time frame after which the annual totals shown begin decreasing but are still substantial for a long time.
These numbers will have morphed somewhat for a variety of reasons but still represent a Big Picture snapshot as of a few years ago.
For the 15 year period inclusive of 2016 through 2031, the total age-outs are: 26,886
As you said, events can alter the situation considerably but I'd guess the people on the bottom of seniority lists here can take at least a small measure of comfort in that data. Of course, first ya gotta GET the job...a whole other thread ! Try to hit it on the upswing. :-)
(I don't know how to post that chart or I would.)
Last edited by bafanguy; 14th Feb 2016 at 17:30.