Boof,
I'm not convinced this statement is accurate in the US: "…with few if any youngsters coming up to take their place."
Are you familiar with the Aviation Accreditation Board International ? You can find details on their website but they represent university aviation programs and have for quite a while.
Here are the university flight programs, so far:
Aviation Accreditation Board International Accredited Programs
Some have been in existence for 50+ years.
I contacted my long time acquaintance whose entire career has been pilot education and who has been affiliated with AABI for a very long time. I asked him what percentage of the training slots these schools represent are now filled by students. He said:
"I don’t know exact percentages, but I think everyone is basically doing well, with strong enrollments."
He did say he wonders if these schools are able to fill the demand over time but was speaking of the university system AABI represents, IIUC; there are also many other commercial training organizations from big schools (ATP, American Flyers, etc.) to mom-and-pop flight schools…even experiments like Jetblue's proposed ab initio program (details/impact/copycats yet to come).
The military has seemingly been cutting back and some UPT grads are being sent to drones so that traditional source may be less than in previous decades.
Things here are in flux with every day being a new day. There'll be pain short term and it sounds like you're experiencing some of it.
I have strong confidence in the ability of the market here to respond to demand despite the heavy, incompetent hand of government. We're not Kazakhstan…we have the practiced, long-proven infrastructure in place to respond to market demand even if it takes a while…and it certainly will.
And, yes, this all can change with the next economic upheaval or geopolitical disaster.