The issue of "pilot shortage" is incredibly complex and data dependent, some of which isn't even available as it's driven by events which no one can foretell and/or companies won't disclose. I don't see a way for a conclusion about its existence to be reduced to small scale, anecdotal bits & pieces.
Mike McGee's RAND study is probably the best one I've seen (and I've tried to read every one I can find) as it's not produced by an organization with an economic and/or political stake in having the study indicate one conclusion or the other.
With all the hiring at the US legacy level, or near-legacy level, the domino effect will produce pressures in other segments of the industry as people try to move up to move to circumstances they feel are "better", ultimately a purely individual, subjective word. Some amount of time will be required for industry adjustments to events; pilots can't be cranked out like Fords on an assembly line.
I remain a very serious skeptic about a "shortage" as the term is somewhat undefined. And without an agreed upon definition, everyone is speaking a different language when trying to discuss all of this.
[and of course, I could just be completely WRONG ! :-)]
At any rate, my only interest in starting this thread was to let our non-US amigos see some properly-sourced, hard data about what's happening at the Big Three (or Four...or Five ?) over here...just for grins & giggles. Circumstances elsewhere in the world are not part of this particular matter.
The shortage issue is a very different subject and time will reveal the facts.
Last edited by bafanguy; 7th February 2016 at 12:12.