The future - what future
From A & C we hear that some of the fleet may have hidden problems, and I accept that as a former Aviation Industry Engineer who at one time used to produce repair schemes for aircraft that the RN had tried to destroy ! Yes GRP can conceal some hidden problems, but then so can metal at times.
However, having flown and instructed on all of the ACO GRP types, and with the networking that went on, ( i.e., where one had been pranged!), I knew of only one Viking that had been seriously compromised ( i.e., tailplane in total removed) and the said tail end replaced by a seriously large GRP repair at the aft end of the fuselage. There were of course others that were Cat 5 like the surviving one from the Viking mid air at Sealand. As for Vigilants, there were two involved in a mid air, (but landed by some miracle with no loss of life), thus the overall numbers of potentially seriously, or potentially non-airworthy airframes will likely as not be a very small proportion of the fleet.
Having said all of this, the exercise consists mainly of paperwork research, and whilst time consuming, it cannot take years ( can it ?). Has anyone thought of checking the location(s) of each airframe over their life, and checking with VGS staff whether they recall any incidents requiring major repair or accident damage ??
Despite the 2 FTS Twitter messages and the emollient messages from Commandant ACO, I know that they don't want to utter their future plan until the DIO Basing report is issued - I heard this last October !
Thus my prediction is unchanged - nothing much before 2017, and then god only know how little there will be due to Staff training / currency issues, not to mention the massive loss of very experienced staff over the three year pause. Then of course from an Air Safety viewpoint, there will be an enhanced risk due to the three year gap in operations aided by having a lot of new staff on board lacking in substantive experience, plus pressure to deliver after a three year interval.
Aviation forecast : Summary : GRIM - with periods of great uncertainty and risk; there will also be scattered new tomes of rules and regulations produced by ACCGS, resembling Encyclopaedia Brittanica, designed to keep all but the most determined aviators on the ground. Staffing issues and shortages will be considerable.
I'd love to be proven wrong, but doubt it !