Very encouraging numbers for January 2016. Domestic pax still in nosedive mode, but other sectors mainly positive. We must keep in mind that the distribution of pax between 'charter' and 'scheduled international' has become increasingly blurred with most flights to Spanish resorts (and others) now firmly categorised as the latter. So those leisure customers are still travelling.
These January stats are also an excellent indicator of underlying trends. There was unusually low disruption to planned schedules this year. Four(?) divs away due to the hole-in-the-runway incident, three of which returned soon after (post spash-and-dash) with pax still aboard. I can't recall any other significant spell of divs away during January. And a modest number of divs-in from neighbouring airports to offset the effect too. No industrial action to speak of. Just afew cancellations due to weather disruption at destinations (US East Coast, Scotland etc.). In fact, I can't recall any previous January which resulted in negligible disruption (some were a nightmare).
A good start to the year and Summer '16 still looking positive. The principal risk factors here are the loss of programmes to Egypt and Tunisia, plus very poor bookings for Turkey. Some aircraft can be re-tasked to Spain, Portugal, Canaries etc., but there is a limit on good quality uncontracted accommodation available at these destinations. All the other Western European markets are scrambling to redeploy programmes there as well ... not all will fit.
MAN requires approximately +8.25% pax growth across the calendar year to achieve 25 million throughput. January has come in a tad below that (still very good though). At this stage, Summer '16 is still looking sufficiently strong for 25 million to be achieved by year-end. Terrorism in the resorts (and fear thereof) is the main statistical challenge we need to monitor going forward.