tactics used by Russia in Georgia and Ukraine, may work in few other places, such as Moldova, but it will not work in Baltics. Why? There's very little to no ethnic tension despite what the program tried to show and every Russian living in Baltics know no matter how they might disagree with the local governments or no matter how favorable Putin might look to them, they are in EU, nearly every family has a member who works/studies in EU, they have better opportunities and so on. It would be very difficult, even next to impossible to get these people turn against what they have, especially when we see that situation in Ukraine has left nothing but poverty and despair.
Also I don't think anyone in the Baltics seriously relies on Nato. When the stuff got messy in Ukraine, the only ones showing some sort of support and interest in the physical security of the Baltics where Americans. It's ridiculous that in time when you need to make a political gesture in favor of Europe's security and integrity, the much closer Nato heavyweights such as Germany or UK cannot be bothered to send a single soldier
I'm sure as the Russia's financial situation worsens we will see new provocations and attacks, as that's what desperate leaders do to distract people from their failure, but I'm also sure that we will see something completely new, something that we were not ready as usual, and something very confusing