The cost of ADSB
I have a Cessna 172 (certified aircraft - not experimental) in the IFR category, I regularly fly IFR for the additional safety and the discipline and procedures that IFR requires. I hold a current IR (used to be CIR) and a PIFR, I have my own personal limitations and know the limitations of my aircraft (i.e. Thunderstorms, ice, alternate requirements etc.). I have a TSO 129 GPS and mode c transponder. Next February I will need to upgrade to ADSB if I want to continue flying IFR. Option a) New GPS (Garmin 530W or the like), new transponder, plus engineering orders, fitting etc. about $20,000, or option b) A slide in replacement of the Garmin transponder with an "all-in-one" unit for approx $7000 but none are available yet for a certified aircraft. All this on top of the mandatory SIDS program (even though my aircraft was rebuilt in 2007 I still have to pull everything apart so that it can be checked again - sure, everything will pass the test but it will add $3 to $4 K to the annual inspection). Then the mandatory replacement of cables and the prop AD if they force that on us.
If no CERTIFIED, easily fitted ADSB solution is available in Australia by next year then I will have to drop to VFR thus reducing my safety margins, my options when travelling and my skills over a period of time. I am 100% sure that ADSB will be of no benefit to me as I do not fly outside the J curve and I do not fly over 10,000'. If EVERY aircraft had to have it (VFR, gliders, microlights etc.) I could see a benefit for ADSB out & in. But my biggest risk is flying at 6000' feet in cloud and some dumb **se in a Jabiru thinks they're fine to fly in cloud (see RA-Aus magazine story - Banana Canyon or similar title) with no transponder etc slamming into me, ADSB as it stands now will not stop this situation.