PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Not a bad time to start training?
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Old 1st Feb 2016, 14:52
  #15 (permalink)  
Sheba29
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Asia
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hmmm - I'm not sure there is ever a good time to gamble £120,000 with one's (parents') house as collateral, when there are no guarantees.

It would appear to be true that hiring has picked up in the last few years, but you have to understand the economics of this. Aviation is a volatile market that closely follows macroeconomic trends. In short, if the economy grows, so does the aviation market (and thus demand for pilots). If the economy doesn't grow however...

Recently, aviation (and thus demand for pilots) has arguably outpaced overall economic growth. There are two main reasons for this: Firstly, interest rates have been effectively zero for quite some time. This means that borrowing is very cheap. In turn it means that airlines are able to get cheap credit to fund fleet replacement and expansion at low cost. As many airlines - especially budget carriers - operate very new fleets, they are essentially replacing/expanding now as interest rates (i.e. the cost of borrowing) are likely to increase in the next few years. When the cost of borrowing rises, fleets will stop expanding. Secondly, the oil price has been incredibly low - around $35 per barrel, compared to well over $100 a few years ago. The cause of low oil prices is more complex than I can be bothered to explain, but needless to say, the low oil price is temporary and has already lasted longer than many analysts expected. It will likely rise again soon though, and when it does, fuel costs will rise, which means ticket prices will too, meaning demand will tail off, meaning the need for new pilots will too.

In sum, much caution is needed. The above are trends that are clear, and we more or less can predict what the economy (thus aviation, thus demand for pilots) will look like, and though hiring prospects are good today, they likely won't be quite so good in 2-3 years' time, which is when someone who applies to a £100k school today will be trying to find a job.

The above also doesn't factor in "shocks" - i.e. less predictable things that might happen. What if they get rid of Schengen? What if Britain votes for Brexit? What if Britain leaves the EU and Scotland leaves Britain and everyone decides that you need a visa to travel in Europe again? What if Islamic State brings down a European plane, as they may have brought down a Russian one in the Sinai recently? These things are all unlikely, but if you're going to be a pilot, you need to understand what risk is, and to be able to analyse it.
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