Originally Posted by
MerchantVenturer
CAA stats show the total passenger numbers from which the average loads and load factors can be calculated.
The 118-seat E 195 was the aircraft type on all routes except Belfast City which uses the Q 400.
The below figures are those for November (in blue) and December.
Edinburgh 6644 passengers, ave load 72.2 load factor 61.2%
Edinburgh 6663 passengers, ave load 66.6 load factor 56.5%
Glasgow 2621 65.5 55.5%
Glasgow 2416 57.5 48.7%
Jersey 717 51.2 43.4%
Jersey 682 37.9 32.1%
Cork 712 44.5 37.7%
Cork 462 33 28.0%
Milan MXP 1429 59.5 50.5%
Milan MXP 1209 46.5 39.4%
Paris CDG 4158 74.2 62.9%
Paris CDG 3879 64.7 54.8%
Faro 376 47 39.8%
Faro 1108 61.6 52.2%
Dusseldorf 1125 56.2 47.7%
Dusseldorf 729 30.4 25.8%
Munich 1626 62.5 53%
Munich 974 37.5 31.8%
Belfast City 3446 57.4 73.6%
Belfast City 3270 54.5 69.9%
The below ski routes commenced in December with the E195 but the figures are lower because the first inbound flights would almost certainly have been lightly loaded. January will give a more realistic picture of these two routes.
Geneva 246 61.5 52.1%
Chambery 201 50.2 42.6%
Could not establish Flybe's numbers on the Dublin route as it competes with Aer Lingus Regional (Stobart).
As always yields are the important figures. The loads and load factors were improving through last summer and naturally were mostly higher than in the winter months so far.
The E 195 is a large aircraft to fill on some of the routes but the likes of MXP, MUC and DUS have generally showed higher monthly average loads (though not always higher load factors) than similar routes from Bristol on the bmi regional E 145s, albeit bmir's fares are usually much higher than Flybe's which might indicate a better yield, although without knowing all the financial aspects of the two airlines on these routes it's impossible to be sure.
Well, the yields have got too be pretty darn good for FlyBe to be satisfied with some of those figures. To make many of the routes work, replacement of the 195 with 170s would make sense, on routes like ORK and JER the DH4 would make even more sense. Question is can BE deploy smaller, more economical aircraft at CWL without simply moving the capacity problem elsewhere?
Perhaps some BHX and MAN business routes could have 170s replaced by 195s, but that's only going to achieve anything if they can fill the 195 on those routes. You really begin to see why the 195 was a bad choice by the former management.
As for "10 year agreements" - agreements can be broken, and IF, and I say IF, FlyBe (or any other carrier) find themselves losing a fortune they would find a way of extracating themselves from an agreement, as it could be buying your way out of a contract is the better / cheaper option. Ask football clubs about junking managers on contracts!
That said, the CWL base is young and developing, and surely the summer season will provide improved loads, and with the loads the yields will surely be more than satisfactory.