I have also heard of the Minsub and that the likely reveal date of its content will be this Friday if it meets the deadline for Ministerial consideration earlier in the week. So fingers crossed there might be news this Friday or Monday.
If you want my best guess then I suspect we are looking at minimal Vigilants returning (maybe Syerston only for instructor course work?) plus most of the Vikings returning to a reduced footprint of airfields (10 or so given the 80-odd Vikings); and the majority from 2FTS/22Gp run airfields at that. I also hear rumours of the EFTS Tutors being considered for enlarging UAS/AEFs and standing up more on the MOBs, which would sound logical - if my maths is correct this would see 40 Tutors on UAS/AEF duties grow to around 80. The only question hanging over Tutors is where to get the UAS/AEF pilots from unless they change the criteria from Qualified Service Pilots and Qualified Service Navs (with PPLs and VPP difference training). With a plan like this is one wonders where the aircrew are going to come from given the extra required for the P8s, 'Protector' RPAS, the run on of GR4 and the extra Typhoon Sqns?
If I'm right then there will be a big training burden for the VGSs left to get the staff current or retrained (if they come from Vigilant). I would also not expect a full return to flight for some time yet. Also, if I'm right and 10-12 VGS remain, what ones will go and where?
My hunch is based upon multiple sources, all of whom said there were many plans in progress - so it could be utter hoop!!!
The B Word