Willie, we must distinguish:
- how Bombardier would like to position the CSeries, vs.
- how the Market is actually positioning the CSeries
Those are two very different things. Bombardier spec'd the CSeries as a "middle-market" jet in between the RJ and mainline service. But unfortunately for them, the aviation market today in 2016 is
very very different than the target market envisioned by Bombardier back in 2004.
Specifically, that targeted mid-market gap may no longer exists (if it existed to begin with). This mid-segment has been called "the Bermuda triangle" of the aviation market.
So reality has
forced Bombardier to compete in the two traditional segments: downwards to the RJ segment and upwards to the mainline segment.
Instead of "owning the gap", the CSeries must now fiercely compete against Embraer, Mitsubishi, Sukhoi on the low end, and against Airbus + Boeing on the upper end. The low price of oil also means the CSeries must compete against both older / heavily discounted models and vs. new / improved designs.
The CSeries is on "no man's land". That's why it's very hard for Bombardier to sell them. Too much aircraft for the low end, yet not well positioned to compete against the upper end.
And this is also why the United deal is specifically a blow to Bombardier. The deal once again re-enforces that
there is no mid-market for the CSeries to own. The incumbents are comfortable competing in their own domains.
The CSeries depends on airlines developing
new business models which can take advantage of its unique positioning (e.g., long range point-to-point service between underserved airports). But what we're seeing is that most major airlines are NOT interested in developing new business models. Instead they are looking to increase efficiency and/or lessen dependence on less profitable partnerships, within existing operating models.
Can Republic or another entity still create a new point-to-point US domestic airline? Will Porter create a national jet service excluding Toronto Island? Might Air Canada give the CSeries a second look, e.g. for Rouge? Sure, but the program cannot survive depending on long shot initiatives.
So all eyes will be on what Delta does next...