While I agree that Mr. Musk is bright guy, and SpaceX has made progress in reducing the $/lb of commercial launch costs, your claim that SpaceX will lower the $/lb of commercial launches by "an order of magnitude" is not realistic
Just to be clear, that's not
my claim, it's Mr. Musk's claim. There was an interview a few years ago where he stated his
intent to get launch costs down to ~$10/lb. to LEO.