Stop Start makes an interesting point here:
There have been plenty of regular, similar "it's the end of the world!!" moments over the years and the RAF generally seems to weather the storms...
However, I sense this time there is a potent cocktail of events that we've never seen before:
- Pilot recruitment to the UK civil market has never been this great before. Ever.
- The RAF is smaller than it has ever been before, resulting in 'strategic shock' of losing a large pool of pilots.
- The ability to turn on the training pipeline is blunted for several reasons:
a) QFI mass is lower than ever due to the shrinkage of the training system post SDSR 2010 and the restructure of the UAS system. The only way to grow this mass is to poach pilots from the FL - requiring a reduction in FL ops and temporary reduction in student pilot output? Furthermore, factor the increased number of FTRS posts at the flying training schools; this generates a whole cadre of QFIs that the FL (particularly OCUs) will never be able to get their hands on.
b) Availability of training aircraft is smaller than before - witness numbers of Tucanos available on the line every day and sale of 3 x King Air post SDSR 2010.
c) The implementation of MFTS is 12-18 months away for EFT, BFJT and ME AFT. the student output numbers, and ac numbers, are fixed at a rate much lower than required to surge.
- We've had a very successful SDSR 15 in terms of platform numbers that will necessitate a increase in pilot mass - regardless of pilot outflow.
- 1998-2000 were peak years for RAF pilot recruitment (over 500 pilots recruited across those years). All of those pilots are now hitting their 16/38 points.
- The new pension has removed the 16/38 point (or at least value of pension at that point) for our second/third tourists. A significant retention lever has just gone.
- The first tourists are of the SDSR 2010 redundancy generation. I wouldn't underestimate the enduring damage that has done to their loyalty.
I haven't seen the full Manning picture, but suspect in the short term improving retention is the only answer. The longer term challenge of ramping up the training system will, I imagine, require some pretty innovative thinking.
As Stoppers says, the RAF generally weathers the storms, but it'll be interesting to watch how this time around.