While I agree that Mr. Musk is bright guy, and SpaceX has made progress in reducing the $/lb of commercial launch costs, your claim that SpaceX will lower the $/lb of commercial launches by "an order of magnitude" is not realistic. According to the SpaceX website, the $/lb price of an LEO Falcon 9 is over $2K, not including other costs such as insurance, etc.
Commercial space launch is a business, and launch services are priced based on what customers are willing to pay versus the competition.To propose that SpaceX would offer launches at 1/10 the price of their competitors ignores basic market economics.