Originally Posted by
gfunc
Out of interest, what do you think are the driving forces behind the recruitment? My (naive) understanding is that airline fortunes tend to lead the economy into recession and lag in recovery, and since the worldwide economy isn't exactly booming, a recruitment wave seems counter-intuitive to me!
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The sandpit and the far east, particularly China are massive driving forces.
They create a vacuum which people are moving to fill.
But at the same time, look at all the new aircraft orders in the West. EZY/RYR particularly are looking to expand massively. Given that a lot of people see them as "stepping stone" airlines to the bigger fish, as well as filling the new planes with crew they also have to replace the crew that leave.
You're right in your understanding that aviation tends to overlap the economical cycle, in simple terms at least, but they have to also be proactive. An airline that isn't will get left behind, so a lot of it is a calculated risk that they hope pays off.
Thats why airlines do things like hedge fuel, and have options rather than firm orders for all the new airframes they want, so they have some flexibility if things don't work out so well.