Big Geordie
I can't elaborate too much as i haven't purchased one, so I don't want to give the impression that what I say is first hand. Having said that, here are a few of the uncertainties as I see it.
The housing market here is restricted for expats. i.e there is only a few designated estates where expats can buy. These have all been developed by one or two companies and they set the price. There is no competition or free market, so there is no way of knowing what prices a free market would support. Hence there is no easy way of knowing whether you are getting a bargain or being ripped off. Discussions with UAE locals would indicate that they are a rip off. But that is yet to be proven.
The UAE government is against expats owning any land in the UAE. The Dubai government has chosen to go against that law. I don't really forsee a major problem here, but Sheikh Zayed is old, and when the ruler changes, anything could happen.
The quality of workmanship here is appalling, and I cant see why the villas for sale would be any different from the ones that we already live in. So the house that you pay 1m for, could well be worth Jack sh*t in 20 years.
When the first bunch of guys committed, they did so based on a 25 year mortgage. This meant that most, if not all the repayments could be covered by the allowance. Subsequent to the papers being signed, the mortgage terms were changed to 15 years. Thanks for coming!
As far as I know, and I am happy to stand corrected, there are few, if any, laws covering expat home ownership here. It is impossible to say with any certainty what the future will hold when trying to sell etc.
At the moment, it seems that each new release is cheaper than the previous. Each new project is also different, so it is very difficult to compare prices, but consider this. Prior to the estates being built the areas where they now stand were just sand. No different in anyway to any other bit of sand in the UAE. Given that we know the houses are going to depreciate (probably rapidly) because of the poor workmanship here, then the only way the property can increase in value is for the land prices to rise. Given that there is no end to available sand for future projects, I can't come up with a good reason as to what will drive up the price of land.
The only way I can see that second hand properties can maintain or increase their value, is if the developers coninually increase the cost of new housing. Remebering that they are already considered expensive when compared to most salaries, I cant see this happening to any significant degree.
That is just a few of the problems I see from a somewhat uninformed position. I know there are many more, but I do not know enough to comment.
This is not meant to be critical of those who have purchased, as many of them have sound reasons for doing so. These are just some of the reasons why I have chosen to sit back an wait for the dust to settle.
I am happy to be corrected on any of the above points by those that know more than I.