What do others do with respect to personal minima vs possible (rather than probable) forecast weather?
Look out of the window. Compare the METAR to the TAF. Go to the airport and talk to people who've already been flying.
And then there's experience and local knowledge. Round here
usually when the forecast contains something like G27 it doesn't actually happen, so I don't let that forecast put me off until I've seen some actual evidence of real gusts.
But on more than one occasion I've turned up at the club to find that nobody has been flying yet today (only lessons booked, no PPL hire, and the weather was too bad for lessons so they were all cancelled). So there's nobody to tell me what it's really like. So after I've been flying I get to tell the instructors (or ATC on occasion) what it's really like.
On one occasion I flew a circuit, then asked for a low level circuit the second time, so ATC asked me where the cloud was. "Well, there's
some down here (at 600'), but not very much." Neither the TAF nor the METAR had cloud at 600' or I wouldn't have taken off - but I did have a Plan B, I had the approach plates to hand and I knew where there was a diversion airfield with better weather.