At first glance I found this news item a bit puzzling. Having thought about it a bit more and read other opinions, I am still unsure what Germany's objectives are, nor why it is Germany that is leading the way in a new platform development. The most convincing conclusion I can deduce from from minimal knowledge is that it might support an industrial and high-technology business strategy for the benefit of German industry, but I admit this is pure conjecture.
The questions I have asked myself are:
Why is it a Tornado replacement?
Are there not enough fully, or partly, developed platforms available in relatively short order: Typhoon/SuperHornet/Gripen/Rafale/F35? At least some of which options would be politically acceptable, cheaper, less risky and available much earlier than a new design-and-build project that probably has a minimum 20 year gestation period if recent developments are any guideline. If it is a replacement for Typhoon et al, then OK, it may be the right time to start thinking about that for 2035 - 2040.
Why is it Germany that is pushing for a new platform?
For historical reasons, Germany is not the most belligerent of combatants so why is a new aircraft a priority? Sure, they need to modernise and rebuild their air force but one of the above aircraft should be able to do what they need for the next 25 years, at lower risk and cost.
Do they covet an advanced, stealthy, networking, all-seeing, all-sensing, all-dancing, unmanned platform developed from Taranis/Neuron?
It makes sense in that you are bringing a new capability to the party, but again, why would it be Germany pushing for it? The technical and political complexity and astronomical cost for a relatively small and uncertain market means it would be a huge risk. Of course Germany will get industrial and design leadership as it will purchase the most aircraft – 300, check 250, check 175......well, a few anyway – so it has potential economic benefits for them.
And the probable outcome?
I can't see a collective appetite for a new version of the Tornado. The risk and cost of producing something that significantly out-performs the current aircraft could get so high that it would call into question the wisdom of that scale of investment in an old platform. I therefore expect some kind of service life extension/modest upgrade programme to keep the current airframes available for a few more years. Such an aircraft would probably do most everything that Germany would need to use it for in the near to medium term, and an existing '4th or 5th generation' platform to fill the gap thereafter.
The UK is already committed to the combination of an interceptor which can bomb – Typhoon, combined with the bomber that can intercept – F35, even if ideally you would want to be able to deploy both for maximum effect and optimum role selection - distance from a land base may determine which asset(s) can be deployed. What comes after Typhoon/F35 is a bit hazy. I don't think we have made up our minds yet. Some sort of optionally manned aircraft hedges our bets for a bit while we decide if the future as predicted in 1957 will be a reality come 2030 onwards. Will that future be European or American led? (putting more easterly developments to one side as they will probably not be options for European customers, at least not within the range of my crystal ball.)
LF