bbrown1664
I note your thoughts on population spread between south and north in UK making the case for another runway at Heathrow or Gatwick, although your comments about ground transport and air quality would suggest that neither is a viable option. Another factor to bear in mind is the degree of resistance to any development, especially at Gatwick which is located within a fairly wealthy semi-rural area. It is already being recognised that either development is a political hot potato and that's before the tortuous planning process gets under way. My thoughts are that ten years is a pipe dream.
mmitch
I fear that Manston suffers from the same problems with transport links as Heathrow and Gatwick, only worse. Having been closed for a couple of years the resistance to development may prove considerable, and it doesn't exactly have an infrastructure.
DaveReidUK
I'm not sure that I have answered my own question. Perhaps the issue is that Heathrow has consistently been seen as "the jewel in the UK's aviation crown" with it being the "world's busiest international airport". For that reason it has been able to market itself as the gateway to the UK with airlines falling over themselves to operate from it. I don't think that it is the busiest international airport any longer, and nor is it a jewel. Increasing numbers of international transit passengers are avoiding it and whilst many from Manchester and other UK airports transit to Gatwick (although not by air), Heathrow, Dublin, Schipol, Paris and beyond to make their international connections, the overbearing emphasis on Heathrow has resulted in it being overcrowded and not a pleasant place to go to. The problem is to draw those passengers back to other UK airports. Airlines are there to make money, and if the major player at Heathrow sees that it has a market elsewhere and is losing money to competitors by focussing on London it may be forced to look northwards. Sadly, having minimised its activities at Manchester over the years I don't see their blinkers being removed.
055166k
You may perceive that the 10% unused capacity exists, but I don't see that it is capable of being used and that's before considerations of LVPs, strong winds and the inevitable loss of a runway due to an incident.
Final thoughts
Regardless of the implementation, or not, of another runway in the "more populous" part of the U.K., the issue is that it won't happen any time soon and for as long as demand for air travel increases and airports and airlines outside the UK see opportunities to develop their businesses they will take the money from UK Plc all the way to their banks. All of which knocks the Heathrow vs Gatwick vs anywhere else out of the arena.