How fragile is the IOM network at present?
I think that, despite the healthy increase in passengers numbers this year, the overall IOM network is in a bit of a hole. There is a lack of stability, and little genuine commitment, from most carriers at the present, and further changes seem likely :-
easyjet - providing a lot of seats to LPL and LGW, and some great fares, if you are well organised and able to plan ahead. But only actually coming herewhen it suits them! It’s not just the gaping hole and poor timings in the summer schedule to LGW, but the timings on LPL and BRS are all over the place, changing from day to day, and month to month. They have demonstrated a willingness to remove capacity, they have no ties to the IOM, and could take everything away, at the drop of a hat, if it suited them to do so.
FlyBe - although IOM should be prime territory for BE, it seems to have been reduced to a backwater, in their thinking, and planning, with most flying now outsourced, and I think, all of it outsourced by next summer. I have heard mention of the CEO’s dislike for the Island elsewhere, and this prejudice, may well be a driver. Presumably for the reduced network to remain viable, both Stobart and FlyBe now need to make money from it. This must make it more vulnerable. We are also exposed to Stobart finding more productive use for their ATR’s and taking them away, at some future point. Or maybe, the current arrangement is a precursor to the whole network being handed to Stobart?
Aer Lingus - despite the long term stability of the Dublin schedule and relatively high fares, which suggest this is a good route commercially, all flying now outsourced to an ancient (25 year old) Latvian registered ATR. I'll say no more!
Citywing - ploughing on with their niche routes, despite some competition, but not really a ‘proper airline’ in many passengers’ eyes and offering only a tiny amount of capacity, in the overall scheme of things. They have shown, in the past, that, perhaps understandably, have no desire to scale up, to fill gaps that might emerge elsewhere.
British Airways – probably the only tiny bright spot right now; fighting back on frequency, fares and capacity to LCY, and bringing some of their own, high quality, metal to the party. But they are really only a niche player too, in an IOM context, and their LCY centric model means they have no interest in other routes. Unlikely to be a part of a solution if FlyBe or easyJet contract further.
I am not sure what the answer is. The IOMG rejected the idea of any form of licensing, even in a ‘light touch’ form, but my sense is that, for a variety of reasons, the whole network is looking pretty fragile and uncertain, at this point in time.
Where will we be in another 12/18 months?
What can/should the authorities be doing to demonstrate some awareness of the position? Some visible action, to bring more certainty, and stability, would surely be a good thing for passenger and business confidence?
Last edited by Tonyq; 10th Dec 2015 at 15:08.