Pure math and probabilistics. I'm just happy to say that I recognized couple of formulas. But, I understood well the pictures, the probabilistic odds look so good that the authors must be millionaires of 6/49.
However, I see one big input that might impact the result, cruise speed is considered and a clean configuration (considering nobody extended the flaps, before fuel exhaustion).
The debris quantity and the extent of damage is direct proportional with ditching energy (1/2)mV^2. But the flaperon condition suggests a ditch with flaps extended. Therefore, the most probable path shown looks promising, but shorter (more north), in handshake with Global Drifter Program results.