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Old 2nd Dec 2015, 08:17
  #296 (permalink)  
nowherespecial
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
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Malabo, thanks for the shout!

This is the number we were waiting for for compliance with NYSE rules. The minimum share value (as I got wrong before before everyone enjoys reminding me) is $1 so taking it up to $9 should provide plenty of leeway. If it crashes down to lower than a dollar from there I think the game is well and truly up. I think the NYSE valuation model requires $40m not $50m but not sure if CHC is a domestic company (registered in Grand Cayman after all) or classified as foreign which is either $60m or $100m. Either way, the valuation is difficult.

In terms of staying listed, I think that the listing of CHC was done by CD&R to fulfil their last remaining investment objective with the business. Keeping it listed makes almost no sense today, it's just dragging CHC's name through the mud in public. We have to think of the way finance people think to understand why listing is important but in essence it's a good way to recover their original investment money. There are more stringent rules financially for publically traded companies so in theory it might be easier for CD&R to buy CHC outright and de-list but that would require pouring good money after badly invested money so why would they do that?

In terms of insolvency (you mention Ch 11), that in theory happens when one of 2 things happen. You either run out of cash reserves or your total liabilities exceed the value of your company. CHC is sailing close to the wind on both for sure. What filing for Chapter 11 would do is in theory allow protection from creditors (ie people to whom CHC owe money to) while they sort out their business and find a viable model to proceed with. A by product of CH 11 proceedings is usually a huge haircut for the creditors (maybe they get back 30c on the $ for example). This would be an absolutely brilliant way to get CHC out of the mud where it is now as what is crippling CHC is centrally held debt BUT.. and it's a big but, CHC's major creditor is also a 40%+ shareholder so the chances of this ever happening are sadly slim. lso, as CHC is not a US company (Grand Cayman), I'm not sure how the legalities of filing for CH 11 protection work as it is a US thing and not replicated globally.

It looks like the new mgmt team are doing a good job of trimming the fat out of the organisation and finding that viable business model I mentioned above. The difficulty is doing it now in the middle of possibly the worst oil slump for a generation, rather than doing it when the going was good.

In my opinion, CHC will carry on limping until there is a good way to refinance that debt despite all the good people, work and intentions that are in place there.
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