Page 120? The air power australia's kopp and goon.
I think their opinions were well covered by the RAAF back in 2012
House of Representatives Committees ? jfadt/defenceannualreport_2010_2011/hearings.htm ? Parliament of Australia
ParlInfo - Parliamentary Joint Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade : 16/03/2012 : Department of Defence annual report 2010-11
Air Vice Marshal Osley : Mr Chairman and committee members, I am tabling a submission which I think broadly addresses the issues raised by Air Power Australia and RepSim Pty Ltd representatives when they spoke to you on 7 February this year. At that hearing the Air Power Australia and RepSim principals were critical of the air combat capabilities of the JSF as well as being critical of the cost estimates and delays in schedule of the program. In my opinion, as Program Manager New Air Combat Capability, I consider the representatives of both Air Power Australia and RepSim made some errors of fact about F35 capability and the status of the New Air Combat Capability program. Similar to the opportunity that was afforded to Air Power Australia, I would like to make this opening statement and then provide a brief Defence response to some of the specific Air Power Australia and RepSim claims, and then of course I am more than happy to take any questions. I am also aware that Lockheed-Martin's Mr Tom Burbadge, will be making an independent presentation to your committee next week.
On the JSF program in general, the restructure that has occurred in the program over 2010-2011, and the past 18 months in particular, known as the 'Technical Baseline Review', has resulted in some delay of milestones and in increased cost estimates. But it has also resulted in a step-change improvement in the project management of the JSF program. In particular, the system development and demonstration phase of the program remains fully funded. It was funded to $43 billion and the US has since added a further $7.4 billion from their own funds, so it is fully funded and will not be affected by the planned US delay of 179 aircraft over the next six years.
On 2 March 2012 this year at the international partners meeting in Washington DC, Vice Admiral David Venlet who is the Principal Executive Officer of the JSF Program Office, reiterated the US government's commitment to ensuring the F35 success and confirmed that the test program and remaining development program were fully resourced. He also reiterated strongly that the current technical issues are normal in a fighter development program and are known by the program, and all are in work and being mitigated. In recent weeks the US Defense Secretary, Leon Panetta, has also reiterated the US commitment to continue to aim to buy 2,443 F35s for the US Military Services. All nine international partners remain committed—that is, the US, the UK, Canada, Turkey, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Italy and Australia. I will not go through the individual countries, but they have all as recently as yesterday at the JSF Executive Steering Board reconfirmed their commitment to the program and indicated how and when they are going to buy their aeroplanes. In addition Israel and Japan have committed to buy F35A through the Foreign Military Sales program with the US, a total of about 60 aircraft at this point in time.
I think some of you would have read about under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Frank Kendall's quick look report from November last year. It was an internal Department of Defense document that made an overall assessment of the suitability of the F35 to continue in low-rate initial production. The report identified 13 key risk areas, but it concluded there was no fundamental design risk sufficient to preclude further production. The report listed the risks, but it did not outline the steps that the JSF program office is going through to mitigate those risks. All of those risks are known by the program and are being worked on.
While the annual 2011 US Department of Defense operational test and evaluation report that was released in January this year said that the most difficult testing is still to come, the report did acknowledge that there had been good progress in flight testing to date, there was pleasing progress on the mission system testing, arguably the most challenging part of the F35 program, and they currently expect to have block 3 software through development testing by mid-2017. That potentially would support an Australian IOC as early as late 2018, should the government agree to that IOC when stage 2 is considered by government.
In response to Airpower Australia and RepSim's claims, I would like to hit on a few points. The first one is Airpower Australia and RepSim claim that the AIR 6000 is a failed project. As explained in my submission, AIR 6000 Phase 2A/B (Stage 1), the first 14 aircraft, has not triggered any DMO criteria as a failed program. Its cost is currently within the cost envelope for stage 1 that was approved by government at the end of 2009. As far as capability goes, it still plans to meet the RAAF's planned initial operating capability requirements as advised to government at the end of 2009. The scheduled delivery of our first two aircraft in 2014 is still on track. Our first aircraft will start to be put together in the next few weeks.
Airpower Australia and RepSim claim that the F35 will not be competitive in 2020. Airpower Australia's criticisms mainly centre around F35's aerodynamic performance and stealth capabilities. These are inconsistent with years of detailed analysis that has been undertaken by Defence, the JSF program office, Lockheed Martin, the US services and the eight other partner nations. While aircraft developments such as the Russian PAK-FA or the Chinese J20, as argued by Airpower Australia, show that threats we could potentially face are becoming increasingly sophisticated, there is nothing new regarding development of these aircraft to change Defence's assessment. I think that the Airpower Australia and RepSim analysis is basically flawed through incorrect assumptions and a lack of knowledge of the classified F-35 performance information.
The JSF program accomplishments to date, towards entering operational service, include that the F35 continues to be assessed to be able to penetrate a modern, integrated air defence system. When the classified capabilities are taken into account, we have had Australian pilots flying high-fidelity simulators and they have been very impressed with the combat capabilities of the aircraft. These pilots include fighter combat instructors from RAAF Base Williamtown and ex-commanding officers of fighter squadrons within Australia. The range of the F35A is about 30 per cent greater than the F18 legacy aircraft. The stealth is meeting planned requirements. The F35 coating technology is being retrofitted to the F22 because the coating is more effective and easier to maintain. The F35 has reached its maximum design speed of Mach 1.6 during testing in 2011 and it has been tested to 9G—in fact, a little bit more than 9G due to a slight overstress by the test pilot. On radar and sensors, the APG81 radar exceeded expectations in real-world exercises in Northern Edge in 2009 and 2011 where it was presented with a modern, hostile, electronic environment. The F35 has very good electronic attack and electronic defence capabilities. Weight has not been an issue in the program since 2005; for the F35A it is well within specification. Eighty per cent of full software capability is flying today. As far as flight tests go, in calendar year 2011 the F35 achieved 6,664 test points against 6,256 planned, so it exceeded it by about 400 points. The F35 does include a follow-on development program each two years of software and every four years a hardware update that is funded by the partner nations in accordance with the number of aeroplanes that they have.
RepSim Pty Ltd reps believe that they have an understanding of the F35 capability that is as good as or better than most, and that is the basis for them making some of their comments about their simulations and about the F35. I would like to say that the RepSim principals have never had access to the classified F35 air combat capability data that Defence has used to assess the capability of the aircraft in various scenarios. Without this access they cannot have a complete understanding of the F35 capability.
Air Power Australia and RepSim principals offer a summary of the Pacific Vision exercise conducted in 2008 where they assert that it proves the vulnerability of the F35. The war game in question was not focused on air combat capability analysis at the required classification and level of detail necessary to draw valid conclusions on the relative merits of the F35 in force-on-force applications. The Pacific Vision 2008 exercise was not intended to test air-to-air capabilities and the analysis done by Air Power Australia and RepSim at the time was not accepted as valid by either Rand, the USAF or the RAAF.
As I concluded in my submission, Defence maintains that the F35 is the right aircraft for Australia. The JSF program continues, however, to be closely monitored by Defence. It is a development program that does have considerable risk and we are aware of that. The Minister for Defence has clearly stated our commitment to acquiring 14 F35A aircraft and that the schedule for delivery of the next 12 is under consideration. The minister has explained that Defence will conduct an exhaustive review of the risks of the capability gap and will recommend options for government consideration later in 2012. The minister has further stated that any decision on the next tranche of F35 aircraft is unlikely to be a high priority for 2012. Thank you.