The Intercept
Back to the point - I think it was an AIM 120 kill - For the following reasons -
If it was an Aim 9L shot or M/P the F16 would have had to been V close at 20,000 with 5 mies approx - I don't think even the coolest F16 pilot could have put himself in that toe of Airspace and got a sot hoping the SU24 would land on Turkish Airspace - which It didn't
My feeling was the F16 locked the SU24 as it was tracking towards the border - Fired - Broke lock and the SU24 continued into the slammer unaware
I have also see the result of an AIM 9 kill the warhead effectively chopped the rear of the jet off - The images of the stricken SU24 look like a hit centre fuselage and causing a fuel tank fire - Not an expanding rod warhead hit near the back end