when you consider that Tornado retires in 2019,
Not necessarily - wouldnt be surprised if there's an extension to Tornado OSD as it is the Platform of choice (necessity!) at the minute with Typhoon not being fully capable.
Can see two new Tiffie sqn's being split between Conz & Los but then personnel accomodation could be a major issue.
Maybe the Leeming rumour has some merit with HAS sites and accomodation available.....and there is the other rumour of "Tatty Ton" getting some Tranche 1 Tiffies.