Guess if the rumours of x9 P8's going to Lossie are true, then my guess is that will be 15(R) Sqn disbanding and the training of Tonka aircrew being subsumed as a training flight within one of the Marham Sqns. Would free up plenty of real estate capable of accomodating the P8's.
Not much guessing is needed when you consider that Tornado retires in 2019, so aircrew training is likely to stop in 2018 (if not earlier). We are unlikely to see any P-8 before then even if we sign the contract tomorrow.
What will be interesting is how tightly they can squeeze any more Typhoon squadrons in at Lossie, as Coningsby is pretty full already and I can't see a third Typhoon base being a cost-effective option. We would then have seven front-line squadrons at Lossie with another independence referendum to come if "Leave" wins the EU referendum. Not to mention the possibility of higher income tax rates in Scotland for the lucky individuals posted up to what will be truly a mega-base. Interesting times ahead.