So Japan, a maritime, island nation (but one which does not have a submarine-based deterrent) thinks it needs upwards of 70 P-1s.
While we're getting NINE P-8s.
I remember when we had 46 Nimrod MR.Mk 1s, equipping five frontline squadrons, and later 35 MR.Mk 2s equipping three squadrons. In the latter case there never seemed to be quite enough of the damned things, and it seemed to be a regular refrain that we really could have used the airframes that had been diverted to the ill-starred AEW.Mk 3 programme.
One can't help but wonder whether the usual desire of senior officers to have the newest, shiniest toy, with all the bells and whistles has again resulted in us not having quite enough assets? Whether the holy grail of 'harmonisation' with the US has not led to us overlooking more sensible, arguably modest solutions that would have allowed us to maintain a more realistic force structure?
I never got the impression that there had been any serious consideration of the alternatives to P-8. Airbus Military said that you could afford to buy and run double the number of C295 MPAs half the money that a given number of P-8s would cost (or four times the number for the same cost, in other words?). It was estimated that even the four-jet P-1 cost roughly half as much as the P-8.
Obviously the P-8 can do many things that a C295 (or Saab 2000, or whatever) cannot, but it cannot be in four different places simultaneously.
Nor am I entirely confident that the P-8 can do everything that it says on the tin, nor even that it will ever be able to do so. I'm uncertain as to whether the aircraft will ever be able to prosecute contacts at low level, or whether doing everything from medium level will be possible or cost effective.
I wonder whether the RAF will specify a MAD, like the Indian P-8s (which also seem to have expanded low level and overland options), or whether we will get an aircraft identical to the US Navy aircraft?
It's obviously welcome news that we're going to get new MPAs at all, but my personal joy is tempered by the tiny (inadequate?) number of aircraft, and at another apparent example of buying the latest (unproven and immature) US kit without even considering cheaper and more practical solutions.