Originally Posted by
andrasz
@ Bertie
The logic is not entirely flawed, but there are two things firmly against it:
The slots in the fuselage side conform to allowed HS up (max 5 deg) and down (12 deg) movements, and as we have seen on several photos it is framed by strong support beams. That would limit the possible downward movement of the HS in your scenario.
As the HS moves down, the aircraft nose pitches up, and this would be recorded on the FDR prior to loss of sgnal. As the FDR loss of signal was abrupt without anything but normal parameters, the tail separation had to be one of the first events.
If the malfunction was with the jackscrew which shares the same compartment as the DFDR/CVR then whatever failed could also have broken the DFDR connection - this could also account for the CVR damage.
The strong support beams would have prevented the internal structure of the HS moving but not prevented the
external structure breaking off due to the aerodynamic load/flutter. The effect could be a zoom climb then with loss of left and right HS a severe negative G bunt - both well outside the normal performance envelope. Strangely, this is what is seen on the FR24 recordings.
Just a thought