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"But that's the intel business, experts making a guess from limited and inadequate information at best, and indulging in outright fabrication at worst.
A bit like PPRuNe in many ways".
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I think that statement is incorrect. The UK and USA Intelligence services are recognised as the best in the world in terms of global footprint and global reach. By sheer volume and diversity of (re)sources, the two biggest contributors to NATO is untouchable.
PPRuNe, members of PP Rumour Network, has thus far delivered some amazing analysis and knowledge on a very complex subject. This is the beauty of 21st Century communication, it is instantaneous, graphic and accessible by most almost anywhere.
Hiding and sweeping things under the carpet has become very difficult.